A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
